Congress to Return to Prospect of War, Peace

WASHINGTON — Congress returns to Washington this week to face the most unlikely of prospects: a session of simultaneous war and peace.

The partisan brawl surrounding Speaker Newt Gingrich’s ethics case and mounting investigations of Whitewater and Democrats’ campaign donations all portend a session of brutal character-bashing by Democrats and Republicans alike.

Yet both sides still seem serious about some major collaborative work, such as balancing the federal budget and providing new tax breaks for families.

No one is sure these starkly different political modes can coexist on Capitol Hill. But amazingly, at least at this point, some people think they actually might.

“The big surprise may be that [this Congress] will be more productive than anyone thinks possible now,” said Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at the University of Virginia. “It’s almost as if we’re going to run on two tracks: a hyperpartisan, acrimonious track of ethical investigations and a constructive, issue-oriented track that will produce some real accomplishments.”

The House is certain to spend at least the first few weeks deep in the partisan track, consumed by the Gingrich case. But after the House votes on the Georgia Republican’s punishment Jan. 21, GOP lawmakers may be looking for ways to put the imbroglio behind them.

“The ethics stuff will be over and done with Jan. 21,” said Michele Davis, spokeswoman for House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas). “There’s certainly an angry band of Democratic Party malcontents who will keep screaming about it. But the rest of us are going to be getting some work done.”

President Clinton has also pledged to look for “common ground” in his second term, which could help him construct a legacy of major legislation and not just a scandal-marred record for the history books.

“You could argue that both the speaker and the president will be so anxious to focus attention on other matters that they will be willing to work out an agreement” at least on the budget, said Robert D. Reischauer, a budget expert at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

In tone and substance, the opening of the 105th Congress on Tuesday is likely to be much different from its predecessor two years ago. The 104th Congress, the first Republican-dominated Congress in 40 years, was sworn in with a self-confident GOP at the helm and a legislative agenda packed with proposals to balance the budget, reform welfare and achieve other goals mapped out in the party’s “contract with America.”

This year’s Republican Congress is returning to power more tentatively. Rather than going out on point, GOP leaders are inviting Clinton to take the lead on balancing the budget, overhauling Medicare and other hot-button issues.

Congressional leaders had long ago planned to put off any real legislative work until after Clinton’s Jan. 20 inauguration. Now, that January vacuum will be filled by the Sturm und Drang of the Gingrich ethics case.

The first test for Gingrich comes Tuesday, when his colleagues will be asked to reelect him as speaker even though they do not know what the House Ethics Committee will recommend as a result of its investigation into a college course he taught with the support of a nonprofit foundation.

Gingrich admitted last month that he violated House rules by failing to ensure that he complied with laws prohibiting the use of tax-exempt contributions for partisan purposes and by giving inaccurate information to the ethics panel about the role of his political organization, GOPAC, in the tax-exempt projects.

After the committee decides what punishment to impose, the matter goes to the full House for what is likely to be a bitter debate and a roll-call vote. Sources close to the investigation say the panel is likely to recommend no more than a reprimand, which would allow Gingrich to keep his speakership.

The critical question is whether that vote will leave Gingrich so weakened that he cannot effectively lead his party or whether he will bounce back.

Many Republicans are frustrated that Gingrich’s troubles are distracting attention from Whitewater and other scandals surrounding the White House. But they are getting ready to shine their light back on the president, in hearings that will focus primarily on illegal and questionable donations solicited by the Democratic Party from the Asian American community.

Although as many as 11 congressional committees are likely to look into some aspects of the fund-raising, the Senate committee chaired by rising GOP star Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) is expected to capture the limelight with hearings beginning as early as February.

Some lawmakers are pessimistic about the prospects of getting much done--especially early in this year--if both Clinton and Gingrich are hobbled by ethics scandals.

“Obviously the president has some big problems, and it seems like it’s getting larger and larger,” said one House Democrat who asked not to be named. “Then you have this problem with Newt. It’s hard to imagine anything getting done.”

But the politics of the current situation could, ironically, have the opposite effect. Both sides seem to have drawn a lesson from 1996, when Clinton and congressional Republicans seemed to have bolstered their political fortunes by reaching agreement on a series of popular bills including welfare reform, an increase in the minimum wage, a measure to expand access to private health insurance and a crackdown on illegal immigration.

The most promising, but challenging, opportunity for cooperation is the budget. One of the earliest votes of the Congress is expected to be on a constitutional amendment to require a balanced budget.

But even if that fails, Clinton and congressional Republicans have both said getting a balanced budget is a top priority. “Balancing the budget has taken on such a life of its own,” said John Hilley, Clinton’s top advisor on congressional affairs. “Both parties’ leadership has staked a lot on this, the numbers are doable.”

Still, agreement is not expected to come easy as Republicans and Democrats battle over the particulars--including the size of any tax cut. Clinton vetoed a Republican bill last year that would have cut taxes by $245 billion over six years, arguing that it would force deep cuts in social programs and complicate efforts to balance the budget.

Yet, Clinton and the Republicans agree on some elements, including providing a $500-per-child tax credit for families. Republicans are clearly more tractable than in the last Congress, when they insisted on a large tax cut or nothing.

“We’ll take targeted tax cuts, we’ll take untargeted tax cuts, we’ll take tiny tax cuts, we’ll take bigger tax cuts,” Gingrich said after the November election.

Another issue before Congress that will require bipartisan cooperation is campaign finance reform. Few are optimistic, however, about the prospects in that area because consensus has long been hard to reach--even in the absence of the partisan provocation the hearings on campaign donation scandals is likely to provide.

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) said the partisanship provoked by such investigations is not helpful to the legislative process. But he also noted that last year’s record showed Congress could produce, even against the backdrop of squabbling over Gingrich and Whitewater.

“It seems to me that [scandals] tend to polarize and politicize [Congress] more deeply than anything else,” Daschle said. “But in spite of the differences we incurred in the last two years, there were moments of progress and some successful legislation. I anticipate that will be true this time.”

Times staff writer Sara Fritz contributed to this story.