Holiday Box Office 101 : Some of the Lessons Learned: All Angels Don’t Fly and Sequels Aren’t a Sure Bet

What worked and what tanked among ‘96’s all-important holiday films? Publicly, studios might blame a glut of films or serious miscalculations about what the public, particularly women, wanted to see. But privately, Hollywood insiders and studio executives think some of the year-end disappointments might have been caused by more concrete problems. Here are a few lessons the studios have been learning:

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1 PICK YOUR ANGELS CAREFULLY

Why did John Travolta’s slovenly archangel, “Michael,” become one of the few real holiday hits (it grossed $52.7 million in two weeks) while Denzel Washington’s suave angel in “The Preacher’s Wife” stumble ($38.6 million in four weeks)? “The Preacher’s Wife,” a $70-million-to-$80-million Disney effort, had been expected to be a crossover black-cast film to attract white audiences, especially with Whitney Houston, who had helped pull off a huge hit in 1992’s “The Bodyguard.”

“This film depicted blacks in America having the same day-to-day problems as whites, very mainstream, very commercial, but still, it wasn’t enough,” said John Krier, head of the box-office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations. “White audiences [generally] won’t go to see an all-black-cast movie no matter how good it is.”

Disney has agreed that the film has attracted predominantly black audiences, but Krier is quick to note another factor.

“Denzel played to the typical image of an angel and Travolta didn’t. All Travolta had to do was wiggle a few dance steps and right away the audience was remembering ‘Saturday Night Fever’ and ‘Urban Cowboy.’ He just played off his own hits and popularity.”

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2 LEAVE SACRED COWS ALONE

Just ask Paramount, which released 1990’s “The Two Jakes,” the sequel to 1974’s classic “Chinatown.” The studio is unfortunately reliving the scenario now with “The Evening Star,” the sequel to the 1983 multiple-Oscar hit “Terms of Endearment.” The sequel hit theaters with a thud, bringing in only $10.1 million, instead of being the major female audience draw it had been marketed as.

“I guess we are all learning that with the public some movies are sacred. They just won’t buy some sequels,” said Wayne Lewellen, head of Paramount’s distribution. (On the other hand, Paramount has produced eight “Star Trek” films and “The Godfather” trilogy.)

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3 AUDIENCES DON’T LIKE A FILM JUST BECAUSE IT’S GOOD FOR THEM

If studios learned anything from the ’96 holiday showdown it’s that moviegoers aren’t really interested in history lessons.

Twentieth Century Fox’s “The Crucible” and Castle Rock/Columbia’s “Ghosts of Mississippi” are the proof. “The Crucible,” based on Arthur Miller’s play about the Salem witch trials, opened six weeks ago to very limited release and has expanded slowly to its current showing in 346 theaters. To date it has brought in only $4.6 million.

Rob Reiner’s “Ghosts of Mississippi,” about the trial of the murderer of Medgar Evers, also opened in limited release three weeks ago and is now playing in 1,268 theaters. Its box office: $5.78 million.

Tom Sherak, of Fox’s distribution, said “The Crucible” suffered the same fate as “The Evening Star”--”it didn’t get the critical support it needed.” And one Fox production source said, “A lot of people saw the trailer and thought, ‘Oh no, “The Scarlet Letter” again.’ ”

As for “Ghosts of Mississippi,” the film fell victim to Hollywood history. “We already had ‘A Time to Kill’ this summer--a story about racial hatred and murder in the South,” Krier says. For his part, Jeff Blake, head of distribution for Sony/Columbia, insists the jury is still out on “Ghosts.”

And finally, one Cineplex theater source said, “The public doesn’t want to be preached to anymore. And sometimes these movies, despite their best intentions, border on being too preachy.”

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4 DON’T OVERDO A GOOD THING, EVEN LA STREISAND

Barbra Streisand’s “The Mirror Has Two Faces” has earned $40.7 million in eight weeks, a figure that Blake believes is respectable. But privately, several executives at Sony, the studio releasing the film, said it was disappointing for a Streisand picture, and exhibitors and other studios agreed.

“There was just too much Streisand on the screen, like ‘Prince of Tides’ only worse,” said one AMC executive. “You didn’t even get to hear her sing. This movie was like baseball without seeing Mickey Mantle at bat. Streisand is about voice, not face.”

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5 THE ‘FEMALE AUDIENCE’ IS NOT A GIVEN

In fairness, Blake suspects “Mirror,” like Fox’s “One Fine Day,” may have been snubbed by its targeted audience, women. Female moviegoers have been flocking to TriStar’s “Jerry Maguire,” expected to be Christmas ‘96’s biggest hit and the first to reach $100 million. The Tom Cruise film has earned $83 million in four weeks.

“One Fine Day,” starring Michelle Pfeiffer and George Clooney, had actually been planned for a March or April ’97 release, but was moved to Christmas, Sherak said, after early test screenings showed a strong response from female audiences. Fox apparently thought it had a “First Wives Club” hit on its hands. The film opened weak three weeks ago and a week before “Michael,” although results have improved, and to date the $53-million film has grossed about $32 million.

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6 MAYBE ACTION NEEDS SOME FRESH FACES

Two of Hollywood’s biggest stars, Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger, suffered disappointments this season. Stallone’s “Daylight,” the only true action movie of the season, cost $90 million and in five weeks it has made only $29 million for Universal--barely enough to cover Stallone’s $20-million salary.

But Nikki Rocco, president of Universal’s distribution, says, “This film will break $100-million box office worldwide very shortly. It has already grossed $59.8 million overseas.”

Schwarzenegger’s Christmas kid movie, “Jingle All the Way,” proved more of a “Junior” disappointment than a “Kindergarten Cop” hit. In its seven-week run it has grossed $57 million, a far cry from its seasonal competition, “101 Dalmatians,” which has grossed $100-million-plus, and Warner Bros.’ “Space Jam.”

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7 KIDS’ STUFF IS NO LAUGHING MATTER

But even “Space Jam” has earned only $85.4 million in eight weeks--hardly a shortfall for most movies, but the live-action/animated picture reportedly cost more than $140 million. Part of that amount included start-up costs for a new live-action/animation division at Warner Bros.

Warner Bros. head of distribution, Barry Reardon, expects the picture to earn $90 million domestically and is banking on the overseas popularity of the film’s star, Michael Jordan, to boost results.

That may not be enough for the studio’s biggest Christmas disappointment, Tim Burton’s pricey “Mars Attacks!” This sci-fi spoof was no “Independence Day,” grossing only $33.8 million in four weeks. “Tim has a certain following and the same following was the crowd who went to ‘Beavis and Butt-head.’ That was the competition that hurt us,” Reardon said. Paramount’s “Beavis and Butt-head Do America” has proven one of December’s biggest hits.

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8 DON’T BREAK UP THE TEAM

Should Paramount make a “Beavis and Butt-head” sequel, surely it wouldn’t make the mistake of dismantling a working partnership. Warner Bros.’ “My Fellow Americans,” starring James Garner and Jack Lemmon, has grossed only $33 million in three weeks. “I’m Not Rappaport,” a very limited Gramercy release starring Walter Matthau and Ossie Davis, has performed disappointingly. Both companies hoped that having one of the two stars from “Grumpy Old Men” would guarantee a hit.

Unfortunately, competitors, exhibitors and company insiders say, Lemmon and Matthau are much more bankable together. “Lemmon and Matthau are like Burns and Allen, Abbott and Costello, salt and pepper--they’re the odd couple we’ve grown accustomed to expect,” Krier said.

And then there are the problems with the titles.

“‘I’m Not Rappaport’ tells the audience nothing,” one exhibitor said. “My Fellow Americans,” another said, sounds like a political movie.

Barry Reardon said: “You can say all you want, but female audiences and too many pictures will be the footnote on disappointments this December.”