Survey of Ventura County Businesses Forecasts an Upbeat 1997

Ventura County business owners and managers expect stronger sales and larger profits in 1997 and are generally more upbeat about the health of the area’s economy than they were a year ago, according to a Ventura County National Bank survey released Tuesday.

“Companies of all sizes across the county, in a wide range of fields, are reporting that sales are better and profit margins are stronger,” said Richard Cupp, president and chief executive officer of Ventura County National Bank. “The cautious optimism we saw in last year’s survey has solidified into a viewpoint that is decidedly upbeat--but nonetheless tempered by the experiences of the last several years.”

Most businesses expect steady, but not explosive, growth in the coming year, the survey shows.

And although last year optimism was stronger in the eastern portions of the county, the outlook of business owners and managers in the cities along the coast and the Oxnard Plain is equally upbeat this time around.

“We used to be able to separate east and west,” said Mary Martha Stewart, the bank’s senior vice president in charge of branch administration. “But there has been a dramatic leveling off in expectations and actual results.”

Companies in Camarillo, Oxnard and particularly Ventura reported increased sales and profit margins, as well as expanded work forces.

“There seems to be some really positive changes [in the west county],” Stewart said. “It may be because of tourism.”

Indeed, with 80% of tourism-related firms reporting an increase in sales in 1996, that industry reported the largest growth of any sector in the economy. The strong performance is expected to continue this year.

About 750 of the 10,000 businesses polled replied to the annual survey, now in its 16th year, bank officials said.

Overall, results were positive in all the county’s cities and across the major sectors of the economy. Following tourism, the real estate, manufacturing, high-technology and general retailing sectors posted the highest gains. But other key areas--including agriculture, construction and the professional and service sectors--also performed well.

Just as in 1995, the county’s mid-size and larger firms reported the best results in terms of sales and profit margins. But smaller companies did much better in 1996 than the previous year.

The outlook for 1997 is even better, the survey shows, with firms of all sizes expecting their numbers to increase.

“[Most firms’] expectations are that sales will increase. Very few people expect decreases in sales,” said Carl Raggio, VCNB’s executive vice president.

About 75% of the county’s larger companies--those with revenues of $10 million or more--expect their revenues to increase, while only about 5% of companies of that size expect reduced sales.

Among the county’s smallest businesses--those with revenues under $250,000--58% expect higher sales and half expect higher profit margins this year.

The recovery among small businesses has help fuel gains in the job market.

“Although companies with 100 or more employees were the most aggressive about hiring in 1996, smaller firms were much more confident about hiring employees,” Stewart said.

The trend is expected to continue, as an overwhelming percentage of respondents project work force growth while very few said they planned layoffs.

Although Ventura County National Bank is expected to merge with Beverly Hills-based City National Bank later this week, bank officials said they plan to continue conducting the annual survey.

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Indicators of Optimism

Ventura County National Bank analyzed surveys from 750 local businesses on a variety of economic indicators to assess what percentage experienced increases or decreases in 1996 and what percentage expect increases or decreases for 1997. Here is a sample of the responses:

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1996 1 results proje Increases Decreases Increases Sales 55% 22% 58% Profit as percentage of sales 42% 30% 51% Inventory 27% 15% 20% Employment 26% 15% 31% Space 24% 8% 21% requirements

997 ctions Decreases Sales 14% Profit as percentage of sales 12% Inventory 12% Employment 4% Space 3% requirements

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Source: Ventura County National Bank