County Moving Back Toward Plus Side of Migration Count

After three years in which more people moved away from Orange County than moved in, an economic resurgence appears to be turning the tide again.

Economists and demographers expect state statistics will show that either migration losses narrowed or Orange County experienced a net migration gain in 1996. The state Department of Finance is expected to release the new migration data next month.

“We do expect, with the job market improving, that negative migration should move toward the positive for calendar year 1996,” said Bill Gayk, director of Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Demographic Research.

For years, people flocked to Orange County, with its beaches, balmy climate and steadily growing economy. Then the recession hit, and the flood of new residents slowed to a trickle. At the same time, more county residents packed up and left for other areas, either to find jobs or because they were cashing out on the equity in their houses.

From 1992 through 1995, nearly 11,000 more people moved away from Orange County than moved in, according to the Department of Finance. Not counting foreign immigration, the numbers are far bigger. In the same three-year period, Orange County lost 82,000 more residents than it gained from other parts of the country.

Now, with the economy heating up and real estate prices down sharply from their peak, that trend is expected to change in the coming years.

Over the very long term, perhaps 20 to 25 years, however, Gayk sees the migration exodus resuming as Orange County eventually runs out of room for new housing and immigration subsides somewhat from current levels. That means that the county’s population growth will come solely from a natural increase--births minus deaths--a pattern often found in maturing regions.

Patrice Apodaca covers economic issues for The Times. She can be reached at (714) 966-5979 and at [email protected].