Long Live the King (Cha-Ching!)

Imagine you are a power broker in the pop world and you’ve just gotten a phone call from an old friend whom you trust implicitly--Sam Phillips, the record producer who discovered Elvis Presley and always remained his confidant.

“You know, I was just thinking: If people will pay millions to see a boxing match on pay-per-view, what would they pay to see Elvis if it turned out he were still alive and in great shape?” Phillips asks from Memphis, where he still lives.

“Oh, I don’t know, Sam. Billions?”

“Well son, get your checkbook ready,” Phillips replies in a voice that tells you he’s dead serious. “ ‘Cause Elvis is back in the building.”

That’s the challenge that Calendar posed to more than a dozen of the most successful figures in the pop world--managers, record executives, attorneys, agents, concert promoters and publicists whose client lists range from Madonna and Michael Jackson to U2 and the Eagles.

The panel was told not to worry about what Elvis has been doing all these years or how he managed to fake his death on Aug. 16, 1977. We just wanted their thinking on an Elvis comeback.

* How much money could rock’s greatest star make through a pay-per-view concert? A worldwide stadium tour?

* Should he agree to be interviewed, to explain where he’s been the last 20 years?

* What kind of money could Elvis get for a new recording contract?

The answers dramatize the growth in the record business and the rock world since the music’s infancy in the ‘50s. Where Presley, even as the biggest star of his generation, could only look forward to generating about $4 million with a blockbuster album and grossing about $50,000 for a concert in the ‘50s, the superstars of today can think realistically of $100 million in album sales and another $1 million a night on the concert trail. In the last decadealone, the record business has doubled in the U.S. to gross more than $12.5 billion annually.

Irving Azoff, who guided the Eagles’ reunion tour of 1994-95, thinks the sky’s the limit for an Elvis return.

“Day One, the guy would have more money than he could ever spend,” Azoff maintains. “It’d be like playing Monopoly where someone would just keep going past ‘Go’ and collecting the dollars. . . .”

Are we talking $1 billion or more?

“I like the ring of $2 billion,” says Ken Kragen, the Los Angeles manager who masterminded 1985’s “We Are the World,” one of the most celebrated benefit projects in pop history. “I think an Elvis return would be unlimited. None of the normal figures apply. You just create new benchmarks. There is nothing in show business that parallels this.

“Who in the world wouldn’t want to see Elvis and hear his story?”

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Even after you get past the tricky issue of Presley’s being alive, it sounds ludicrous at first to imagine a 62-year-old as a successful concert attraction and sex symbol in rock. But Mick Jagger is 54 and the Rolling Stones grossed more than $120 million in the U.S. alone the last time they hit the road, in 1994.

And we’re talking about the most dominant star in the history of pop music, someone whose main goal in coming out of hiding, we’ll assume, is to regain his self-respect.

Under our scenario, Presley has spent enough time in a health spa to put himself in top physical and vocal form. No more bulging waistline. No more drug dependency. No more the tragic cartoon.

We’re talking about a creative rebound similar to the one Presley made in the late ‘60s, when he emerged from all those sleepwalking years in Hollywood movies to reassert himself in a landmark television comeback special and then in a series of electrifying performances in Las Vegas. That’s when he came up with some of the most exciting singles of his career, including “Suspicious Minds” and “Burning Love.”

The panel members got into the spirit of the exercise, some even bringing a page of handwritten notes to the interviews, the product of some overnight thinking.

Attorney John Branca, who has represented nearly a third of the acts in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, including Michael Jackson and the Doors, stresses that Presley should be wary of how the comeback is perceived.

“The public doesn’t like to see a performer being greedy,” he says. “If the only reason Elvis were deciding to perform again was money, it would give people a bad taste. The challenge here isn’t about just getting a second chance as an entertainer, but a second chance as a human being.”

Not everyone, however, was enthusiastic.

Jimmy Iovine, whose Interscope Records has been the success story of the ‘90s in the troubled record business, says he wouldn’t look forward to a Presley record.

“Did I love Elvis? Yes. Would I like to have him over to dinner to find out what he’s been doing all these years? Most definitely. Would I want to go into the studio and make a record with him in 1997? No way. The guy’s 62 and I think it’d be very hard to make anything good. Would it sell? Sure, but pieces of his hair would also sell. I wouldn’t be interested.

“If I had his contract, I’d call Sony and trade him for three draft picks. I’d go, ‘Tommy [Mottola, Sony Music Entertainment president and COO], I’ll give you Elvis, you give me Oasis, Babyface and Rage Against the Machine.’ ”

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No one doubted that Presley--whose estate today is valued at $250 million--could generate unprecedented sums with a comeback, but panel members frequently differed on the best route to those profits.

Rob Light, an agent with Creative Artists Agency who has designed tours for scores of artists including Barbra Streisand, Prince and Alanis Morissette, says Presley should avoid a television show because the small screen rarely captures the dynamics of a rock concert.

“There are a hundred ways to make money, each one better than the next,” he says. “The challenge is preserving the image of the youthful, dynamic Elvis. The ideal is to make every original Elvis fan feel 20 again--and that’s why I would avoid television.

“Human nature has the ability to erase all the bad and savor the good,” says Light. “You remember your high school sweetheart as the prettiest girl in the world. In the TV close-up, Elvis isn’t going to be that guy who sang ‘Love Me Tender’ on ‘The Ed Sullivan Show’ or who looked like a god in Las Vegas. He’s going to be a 62-year-old man with sweat running down his face.”

But Michael Cohl, the Toronto-based promoter behind stadium tours for the Rolling Stones, Pink Floyd and U2, voted for teasing the audience with a free TV show before embarking on a 100-plus-city worldwide stadium tour that could gross between $750 million and $1 billion. While you could conceivably charge thousands for the front-row tickets in some cities, you’d have to drop the price drastically in some countries.

“I think you put Elvis on the beach in Miami and draw 1 million people so that it’s the biggest event ever in North America and you put it on free TV so that everyone can see it,” Cohl says.

“I assume he’ll be great because he was always great, so you confront the skepticism head on. There will be people going, ‘He’s 62, he can’t perform anymore, he’s going to die of a heart attack on stage. . . .’ And then he comes out and knocks ‘em out. They’ll go, ‘Sure, he’s 62, sure he sweated, but wasn’t he great? I can’t wait to see him live.’ They’ll want to be part of history.”

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It’s hard to believe now, but some of the media actually underplayed the news of Elvis’ death 20 years ago. CBS-TV, for instance, didn’t report it until six minutes into its nightly newscast.

There would be no such gap with Elvis’ return. The question is whether the media would get access to Elvis.

Ken Kragen, who helped resurrect Kenny Rogers’ career after the demise of his group the First Edition in the early ‘70s, believes that an interview is probably Elvis’ most powerful card, and that it should share the spotlight with a concert performance in a pay-per-view telecast.

Under Kragen’s plan, the telecast would come at the end of a yearlong series of Elvis sightings--actual placements of Elvis in public situations.

“You know the movie ‘Diabolique,’ where they keep seeing someone but can’t prove it?” says Kragen. “That’s what I’d do with Elvis. I’d have him stand in line next to someone in a grocery store, but then they’d turn and he’d be gone. You’d also have him walk along the street in Little Rock just when President Clinton was driving by, so that maybe Clinton would joke to the press later that day about how he had seen Elvis.

“Eventually, there would be so many sightings that Time or Newsweek, looking for something offbeat, does a cover story: ‘Is Elvis Really Alive?’ At that moment, you announce your pay-per-view concert . . . “

To maximize the profits, Kragen would sell sponsorships, hoping that, say, a Bill Gates would pay hundreds of millions to showcase some new product.

With 35 million homes capable of receiving pay-per-view telecasts in the U.S. by the end of the year, if half the homes signed up to receive an Elvis concert at $50 each (the figure charged for top prize fights), the gross could be almost $900 million. If you figure another 5 million homes around the world--half the potential--at just $25, that figure leaps past the $1-billion mark.

But Jock McLean, vice president of programming for Showtime Event Television’s pay-per-view operations, warns against thinking that even an Elvis return could attract that kind of money. The hottest musical or athletic events on pay-per-view have only reached between 2% and 6% of available homes respectively. People tend to watch the events in groups, and companies charge far less for music programs than boxing matches.

If you then assume only 2% of homes signing up for a $25 telecast, the gross drops to $17.5 million.

But Jerry Weintraub, the veteran film producer who also promoted Presley’s concerts in the ‘70s, thinks Elvis would rewrite pay-per-view history.

“The show would get everyone who ever listened to an Elvis Presley song in their lives. I’d bet you could get half of the homes.”

Now, you’re talking money again.

At $50 a home, the gross would top $850 million.

The biggest division among the industry figures questioned concerned whether Elvis should do an interview as part of a pay-per-view special.

Irving Azoff, who has also worked over the years as record executive or manager with such artists as Steely Dan and Jimmy Buffett, brands as “tacky” any pay-per-view interview.

“I’m assuming he’d talk about wanting to be remembered as a great singer and a legend for what he’s accomplished musically, not simply wanting to milk the public by telling his story,” says Azoff.

“Because if he did want to make money out of the fact that he died and came back, then he’d end up in the hall of horrors with Mike Tyson and the rest. If he sat out intentionally, he perpetuated a great hoax on the public and it would cause resentment. If he was trying to straighten his life out, then that’s something else. People could understand that.”

Rob Light is also uneasy with the idea of a pay-per-view interview. He feels the most dignified way for Presley to tell his story would be through a book that could be excerpted in, say, Time or Newsweek on the week of his return concert.

Morton Janklow, a top New York literary agent, believes a Presley autobiography would be a major publishing event, with a first printing of 1 million hardback copies.

But he pauses at the suggestion of some panel members that the book could command a $50-million advance. “That [advance] is an overstatement by a factor of at least 10 times,” Janklow says. “I represented the Pope, and that’s a bigger book than Elvis Presley. And we also represented President Reagan. Those are the highest prices ever for nonfiction and they are nowhere near that amount.”

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If Presley preferred more traditional interviews, Pat Kingsley, one of the most powerful publicists in the movie business, suggests one print interview with a news magazine and one television interview with a news-oriented host.

But wouldn’t a TV interview shatter the Presley mystique?

“He doesn’t need mystique,” says Liz Rosenberg, senior vice president of media relations for Warner Bros. Records and best known for her work with Madonna. “He’s Elvis Presley and he’s one of a kind. I think it’d be important to personalize him. I have faith that he would rise to the occasion and he’d be fabulous.

“I’d put him with Charlie Rose, who is a great interviewer and who has PBS, which means you won’t be interrupted for commercials every few seconds. Then, I’d have him go on with Oprah [Winfrey] or Rosie [O’Donnell] a few months later and give sort of an update . . . how things are going on the tour, maybe.”

Freddy DeMann, who manages Madonna and is a partner with her in Maverick Records, disagrees with the television interview concept.

“There is no gain to telling the story,” he says. “Don’t explain away the mystery. That’s one of the most powerful things he has going.”

DeMann thinks Presley should kick off his return by going back to the place where he made his biggest splash on stage: Las Vegas.

“Put him back in a showroom and people would go wild,” DeMann says. “The word of mouth would be sensational. Then he could tour and maybe end up with some kind of TV show. But you want to bring him back at his best.”

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Presley replaced Frank Sinatra as the king of Las Vegas showrooms when he broke all house records in the summer of 1969 by packing the 2,000-seat International Hotel showroom for two shows a night for four weeks. He earned a reported $100,000 a week.

But it’s doubtful that Presley would return to a mere hotel showroom at any price.

CAA’s Light leans toward creating a new venue--either a new theme hotel and/or arena--that would be a permanent monument to Presley’s return and his history. That would mean Elvis might make his return in a 15,000-seat arena, much the way Streisand returned to concerts with her landmark New Year’s Eve shows in 1994 at the MGM Grand Hotel, where top seats went for $1,000 each.

Irving Azoff has an even bigger target in mind: He would investigate building a temporary structure near Lake Mead that would accommodate up to 250,000 people--a sort of Elvis Woodstock.

John Scher, the New York promoter who was involved in Woodstock ‘94, chuckled at the prospect of an Elvis Woodstock and seconded Las Vegas as the natural site.

“There would be so much demand for tickets that you could probably insist that everyone dress up as Elvis and you’d still sell 250,000 tickets,” he says. “This would be a once-in-a-lifetime event. You could put a hotel room in there and charge $300, $400. For the front rows, the sky’s the limit. $10,000? $50,000?”

And then there are the record and movie deals.

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“I think a live album, properly promoted, would be sensational,” says Donald Passman, a Los Angeles attorney who has represented Janet Jackson and R.E.M.

“The Beatles’ model was a good one, . . . the way they came with the documentary TV special before the ‘Anthology’ albums. That way you would remind people of Elvis’ history and get them ready for the album and the tour. And don’t forget the merchandise. That alone would be a fortune.”

Everyone surveyed, from attorney Branca to record company head Iovine, suggested that Elvis either go back and renegotiate his deal with RCA--his recording home for virtually all his career--or simply start his own label.

If Elvis didn’t like the RCA proposal (an RCA representative felt “uncomfortable” commenting on the topic), the panelists said, starting his own label would make sense because he could walk away with between $4 and $5 per album--about twice the average superstar royalty rate on major labels. If a live Presley album would sell 10 million copies worldwide--and most experts termed that figure conservative--it would mean upward of $50 million for the singer.

Artists accept the lower rate from major labels to take advantage of their massive marketing and promotion wallop. With Presley, however, there would be minimal need for traditional record company marketing. Asks attorney Branca, “Is there going to be a single person in the U.S. who won’t know an Elvis record is coming out and where to buy it?”

And, yes, Presley could record for his own label because the RCA contract has expired.

In addition to a live album, several panelists suggested that Elvis could do a collection of duets with some of today’s hottest names. Picture Elvis singing with everyone from Alanis Morissette and Hanson to Bruce Springsteen and maybe Michael Jackson (they are, uh, sort of related).

And movies?

Remembering the generally awful quality of Elvis’ movies, most panelists shuddered when the issue of films was raised. The consensus: limit any movie project to a documentary of the live shows.

The exception: producer Jerry Weintraub. His idea: a series of movies with Presley cast as a romantic action hero.

“I’m thinking of the stuff that Harrison Ford is doing, not playing the President, but things like ‘Clear and Present Danger,’ ” Weintraub says. “It’d be huge.”

In all the talk about huge sums of money, several of the panel members had bad news for Elvis’ financial planners: They thought he should give away most of the money.

“The charity component is crucial,” Kragen says. “If he doesn’t give back as much as he is taking, the reaction could go from, ‘Oh my God, Elvis is back’ to ‘Why did he trick us by going away?’ It’s like when your child is lost. Your first reaction is, ‘Thank God, you’re back,’ but then you go, ‘Where have you been? Why did you do that?’ ”

Stressing the charity angle, attorney Branca thinks Elvis ought to earmark a chunk of the funds to many of the R&B; and blues artists from the ‘50s who influenced his music but never reaped the financial rewards of many of the young rock and pop acts.

Publicist Kingsley, whose clients include Jodie Foster and Tom Cruise, thinks the real question is how to rebuild Presley’s tarnished legacy, not how to maximize the dollars he could make.

“Whatever he decides, I’d like to see every single dime of it go to charity,” she says. “That way he would not only be doing good in the world, but would be remembered as the humanitarian who gave a billion dollars to charity. It’s the most amazing thing he could do.”

But Kingsley added that little of this career counseling would have been possible if Col. Tom Parker, the rock star’s tough-minded manager, were still alive. Parker often seemed to value short-term financial gains over long-term objectives.

To illustrate her point, Kingsley tells about working in 1960 with Frank Sinatra when she was with the public relations firm Rogers & Cowan. At the time, Presley, fresh from the Army, was going to guest on a Sinatra television show. During a planning meeting, Kingsley asked for 25 photos of Presley to use for publicity purposes.

“We were just talking about black-and-white publicity shots, but Col. Parker said the only way we could have them was to pay $3.50 each. Sinatra broke up when he heard about it. He personally sat down and wrote a check, and Parker took it. Nothing was free with the Colonel.”

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Robert Hilburn is The Times’ pop music critic. He can be reached by e-mail at [email protected]