Three academy members size up the Oscar race

Conventional wisdom says the races in the top Oscar categories are all but locked. Colin Firth and Natalie Portman will win the leads, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo provide the support and “The King’s Speech” cleans up for picture and director.

But judging from how the three academy members we polled — a writer, an actor and a director, all men — marked their ballots, upsets could still occur. Which is why, of course, we tune in on Oscar night. Because in that moment between the opening of the envelope and the winner being announced, anything remains possible.

—Glenn Whipp